As most of you know by now, the unemployment figures were released on Friday, June 5, 2009, and the news was not good. The unemployment rate is now 9.4% according to the DOL (http://www.dol.gov/) as another 345,000 jobs were lost in May, bringing the recession's total job loss tally to over 6 million jobs (mid 07 to now). Some of the media tried to spin this news in a positive light, saying the job losses are slowing, and I guess that's true. Even still, companies continue to cut jobs. How should one view this trend? No doubt, everyone has their own take. Consider at least two things: unemployment is a lagging indicator in our economy, and as long as layoffs are still occurring, have we really hit "bottom" as some talking heads claim? Let's take the first consideration...if unemployment lags other economic indicators, one might ask..."by how much?" Could we be at 'bottom' already and just don't know it? A good example of this lag is how unemployment went from 5.6% in 2002 to 6% in 2003, even though the recession ended in 2002. The more optimistic companies are, the more unemployment typically falls. Since the number of new jobless claims has dropped for 3 months in a row now, one could assume there is an optimistic shift out there. Depending on how far the lag, we could be at 'bottom'. If you're interested in reading more about lagging indicators, see About.com's story by Ken Little(http://stocks.about.com/od/glossary/g/laggingindic.htm). So, we've discussed the lag...but why are layoffs still occurring? There are more factors than time to discuss them all, but a few worth mentioning are...1) companies are still held accountable by their stakeholders to maintain and improve the value of their company, so layoffs could continue as management tries to prop up their sagging profits by cutting cost (people) in a period where revenue generation is much weaker than a year ago. 2) Market shifts can ripple very fast in some industries, especially those with JIT inventories, and much slower in other industries. The auto shake-out is not over yet, and may drive more layoffs as the effects of bankruptcies ripple through various tier suppliers. Some experts say the automotive sector makes up roughly 10% of all U.S. GDP, so as the current changes propagate, more layoffs will likely come as some of these tier suppliers will shut down or be greatly diminished.So, what does all this mean to you? It depends on where you are in life, in your career, where you live, etc. There are some positive signs...things to be
optimistic about (stock market, housing starts, etc), but as they say, "pray for the best, but prepare for the worst". Its hard to believe that we are completely out of the woods yet. We may drag along the bottom with pockets of improvements here and there, a good news/bad news kind of thing for the rest of this year. Beyond that timeframe, I believe we will be facing another version of trouble...inflation. But as we are in a deflationary period, most people are
choosing not to worry about that one yet... one problem at a time, right?
One last thought...it was reported last week that personal savings rate is the highest it's been since 2-1-1995 (
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/PSAVERT.txt). What does this mean? One answer could be that people are still scared and are holding on to their money. Until that fear can be mitigated and spending returns to normal as a result, the economy cannot fully recover. With so much of the media being all about the negative story line, I think that fear will continue to drive consumers towards holding tight.
Unemployment will continue to rise probably through the end of the year, although at a decreasing rate, so those out there in the job market will continue to struggle to find much to chose from. Staffing companies have really taken it on the chin over the last 8-9 months, as their job orders have fallen in concert with the shrinking economy. While you may or may not believe in Reagan's politics, the one thing he did for the economy and for most
Americans after he took office amid a horrible economy was to accentuate the positive, uplift the ideals that have made this country great, and turned the pessimism to optimism. We need someone to be the positive voice out there right now...