Unemployment Dropped Slightly...Really?

So, the Fed says the national unemployment rate dropped from 9.5% to 9.4% from June to July. Really? Is this a blip or is it a 1-month trend?

Several experts watching the unemployment rate immediately discounted the slight drop as nothing permanent, and as a data point that isn't real anyway. So what's the real unemployment rate you ask? As always, it depends on who you believe, but several 'experts' say it's more like 16% or more because of the number of unemployed people that aren't getting counted because they aren't filing for unemployment claims anymore. Unemployment insurance only pays out for a certain period, although it would be foolish to tell you how long since the Fed keeps extending it. However, once you have exhausted the period (and eventually you will if you don't get re-employed), you don't get counted in this national statistic anymore.

So what you may be asking yourself right about now! Who cares how they count it! Well, start caring. Why? In July, job losses continued in many of the major industry sectors (BLS). Also, 1 in 3 unemployed persons were jobless for 27 weeks or more (that's 6 months people). On top of that, most experts conclude that the unemployment rate will continue to rise in the months to come. We will wait to see if this is true, but suffice to say, this is far from over yet. Getting back into the work force once you've been laid off can be very hard (which indicates there's not a lot of hiring going on still), and although the economy has a few positive pointers, my opinion is that things will get worse or at best bump along the bottom through the end of the year. Let's hope I'm wrong.